Wharton Chapter 10: Scenario Planning for Disruptive Technologies

Edmund Burke once wrote, “You can never plan the future by the past.” This personifies the intent of this chapter. Schoemaker et. al. explain that the uncertainty of the future requires one to, rather than plan for a single possible future, create a portfolio of scenarios that may occur in the future. It is through the creation and planning for these multiple scenarios that we are able to properly prepare for the uncertainties of emerging technologies. The key to this chapter is the idea of scenario planning, which is much like the risk assessment and contingency planning processes of project management. The creation of scenarios is a complex process that requires the identification of a number of variables that allow a great deal of insight into the potential outcomes. First is the identification of stakeholders, external market forces, trends, and key uncertainties. Key uncertainties are a vital aspect of these steps as they are the forces that act on the scenario and issues that have a high level of uncertainty. The primary process for identifying these is through the survey of experts, managers, and stakeholders. The development of the scenario continues with selection and expansion of the most important key uncertainties, analysis of potential internal learning, additional research, and reassessment/revision of the scenario. Constant vigilance and reassessment of the scenarios is necessary on an ongoing basis to prepare for the potential futures that may occur. The tools provided for scenario planning can be helpful guides; however, understanding how the organization and its managers will respond in the moment of crisis occurs can be a great tool to aid in the success of the organization. As such the use of “surrogate crises” can help prepare managers for such eventualities and for upper managers to be better prepared for the responses of lower level employees.